aaron c beals

[Brant posted his predictions today, just before me. Read them!]

We’re a little late with the predictions this year, and as a result, they have been influenced slightly by the outcomes of the first week of games. Luckily, Brant and I have benefited from the same amount of information, so we should be on par. Except for the fact that my predictions are going to be right.

THE EAST
Atlantic Division
1. New Jersey
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Philadelphia
5. New York

I hate the Nets (though I’m open to changing my mind when they move to Brooklyn). But they’re going to do well this season. Yes, Vince Carter is in a contract year, but that’s not the whole reason they’re going to be #1. They are going to be aided by the crappiest division in the League. And Nenad Krstchkrskckstsk. Toronto is young and hungry, and (I can’t believe I’m about to write this) would have been a contender for top of the Atlantic if they hadn’t given away Charlie V. Bargnani? Softer than a day-old cannoli. I’m feeling a comeback year from T.J., though — and Bosh is going to realize he needs to start taking over games. Then there’s the Celtics. In the interest of full disclosure, I had them at #2 here until I sat there in the Garden for opening night. What a disgrace and a failure to win it for Red. I finally agree with Bill Simmons: Doc has got to go. There’s just too much talent there to have it mismanaged. I’ll write more about the C’s in a separate column, touching on Rondo, Bassy, and the rest of the kids. Philly’s season is going to fall apart with Chris Webber’s knees, but the shot in the heart will come later in the season as AI trade rumors start to heat back up. I have to say that I officially feel bad for the inhabitants of Philly at this point. But not as bad as I feel for Knicks fans. Words cannot do that train wreck justice. [THEY GAVE JARED JEFFRIES MONEY! REAL, ACTUAL MONEY!!]

Central Division
1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Milwaukee
4. Indiana
5. Chicago

Wow, what a stacked division, especially for the East, which has been the overall weaker Conference for a while now (despite the Miami win last season). Don’t be surprised if all 5 teams make the playoffs this season. Given all the power here, it’s actually tough to figure out how they’re going to land. I’m giving Cleveland the nod, not because of the components (Eric Snow and Drew Gooden do not a contender make) but because I believe LeBron has the capability to make them impossibly better, just like Kobe was able to do in L.A. Detroit will come in at #2, but that’s only because they’ve burned me in the past. They have to taper off at some point here. They just have to. But not this year. They’re going to quietly win 30 games before making another late-season surge and ending up with 45 or so. I wish I didn’t have to do that, because I’d much rather pick Milwaukee as the #2 here. They’ve got undeniable offensive weapons (Redd, Simmons), an underrated stopper (Villanueva), and a legit big man (Bogut). Their only weakness is their bench. Lose two starters to injury, and they’re toast. Indiana is going to start strong, self destruct (partially due to the amazing Stephen Jackson, partially due to a painful back injury for O’Neal), and end up slipping to 4th in the Central. That said, they’re still better than most of the rest of the East. And finally, poor Chicago. Everyone (I’m including myself here) wanted to pick them higher before the season started. They have the young talent, possibly the best in the league other than Boston. They managed to take last year’s solid D and make it even more robust with the addition of Ben Wallace. However, for a D-heavy team to succeed in the NBA today, they need to be built a lot like Detroit. And frankly, the Bulls aren’t that. They may be able to hold teams to the lowest scoring in the league, but they’ll need to do some consistent scoring themselves to win games.

Southeast Division
1. Miami
2. Washington
3. Orlando
4. Atlanta
5. Charlotte

Miami is worse than last season, will not compete for the NBA title this year, will squander a year of Dwyane Wade’s phenomenal career by keeping him surrounded by aging ex-stars… and will win the Southeast because the rest of the teams are sub-par. We hold these two truths to be self-evident: Washington is going to score more points than any other team in the league, and Washington is going to allow more points than any other team in the league. Oh, and I guess there’s a third: Gil Arenas will regularly go off for over 40 points. Orlando, improbably starting the Bat Man (Tony Battie), will ride Grant Hill’s swan song just enough to grab third place, but will miss the playoffs. The good news is that JJ Redick will step up and get ready to take Hill’s spot. Atlanta could have been better with the weapons they should have drafted/traded for, but they’re not too shabby with the guys they have. Too bad the Atlanta front office will find a way to screw things up. Speedy Claxton, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, the new Big Z (Zaza)… wow, on paper, I really like this team. Unfortunately, in Atlanta, I don’t. Charlotte ends up in last place here, and probably last place in the whole Conference, for one last year before they click as a team and as an organization. Hire a top-5 coach and these guys could do a lot in 2 years.

Playoff-Bound: Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Indiana, Miami, New Jersey, Washington, Chicago

THE WEST

Northwest Division
1. Utah
2. Denver
3. Minnesota
4. Seattle
5. Portland

Utah’s another team benefiting from sitting atop a crappy division. This isn’t a knock on Denver — I think Carmelo’s good enough to overcome the ticking time bomb that is KMart + Karl. Minnesota? Welcome to the 2004 Boston Celtics, KG! Seriously, they’re starting Mike James, Ricky D, and Mark Blount. MARK BLOUNT! I should give them last place just for that decision alone. Seattle has two solid players in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but have surrounded them with junk. Nice work, and another slap in the face of a great city that’s going to be losing their stories franchise to Oklahoma City in 2 years. Portland is Portland until further notice.

Pacific Division
1. L.A. Lakers
2. L.A. Clippers
3. Phoenix
4. Sacramento
5. Golden State

I really hate putting Phoenix so low here, but their season really hinges on Amare’s health, and there hasn’t been anyone in the NBA that’s come back from microfracture surgery 100%… or even close to it. L.A. seems to be the dominant city in this division, and as much as I also hate this: the Lakers are better than the Clippers this season. No more legal distractions for Kobe, which allows him to focus on playing out of his mind and making his teammates better. Sacramento got a huge shot in the arm from Artest, but really needs a team overhaul to be a contender again. Golden State is riding the Baron’s bad back and the 32-1-1 stat lines of J-Rich, not to mention the vastly overpaid Dunleavy. Good times in the Bay Area.

Southwest Division
1. San Antonio
2. Dallas
3. Houston
4. New Orleans/OK City
5. Memphis

San Antonio’s only potential weak spot is at center, where they have an unproven foreign player (Fabricio Oberto). And we all know that unproven foreign players never work out well for the Spu… oh, wait. I think they’re all set — their strategy seems to be surrounding TD with the Argentinian National Team. Dallas has all the pieces from last year’s team, but they won’t win their division during the regular season, because they’re saving the big push for the playoffs. Also, look for Mark Cuban to distract the team with his continued antics. Houston made a big defensive upgrade by adding Battier at SF — smart move — and could go far if TMac, Yao, and Bonzi can share the ball on offense. Interesting note: on the depth chart, they’re FIVE deep at shooting guard. Yes, TMac’s position. Weird. New Orleans picked up Peja and Tyson Chandler in the offseason, both good moves in my opinion. Look for them to do better than expected, but struggle against teams running the fast break well. And last (and certainly least), Memphis. Until Pau comes back (estimated: Jan or Feb), they’re riding Eddie Jones, Mike Miller, and Stro Swift. Bummer in the River City.

Playoff-Bound: San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, L.A. Lakers, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix, Utah, Denver