aaron c beals

Okay…an intro…it’s hard to write an intro when someone is tuning a harp in the background. Let me just say that I am, as usual, stoked for this NBA this year. I probably shouldn’t say this, but I dreamt about my fantasy team the other night. In other words, I’m ready for ski season to start. Enough rambling, here’s the predictions with commentary in paragraph form:

East
Atlantic
Nets
Celtics
Sixers
Raptors
Knicks

As always, we’ll kick it off with the worst division in basketball — for the Atlantic, I did my rankings from the bottom up. At this point, there’s nothing left to say about the Knicks. The Raptors, in essence, switched Mike James and Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford and Andres Barganini. In other words, the Colangelo Era is getting off to a rocky start. You know what though? One of the Sports Illustrated writers picked the Raptors to make the playoffs. I’ve been searcing for an angle on the Sixers for a while, here’s the best I’ve got: How does a team with two Hall of Famers not make the playoffs? Just watch the Sixers. Now, the C’s: listen, I like Rajon Rondo, too, but let’s all just take a deep breath. Is he going to be good? Sure. Is he the second coming of Chris Paul? Not likely. And the Nets get the division by default. Again. Sigh.

Central
Cavs
Bulls
Pistons
Bucks
Pacers

This is a strong division and I’m giving it to the Cavs. My reasoning is 75% LeBron, 23% Larry Hughes and 2% Anderson Varejao. The Bulls are good defensive team with a defensive-minded coach that just added the best off-the-ball defender in the league, and even though Big Ben doesn’t score, pretty much everyone else can get the job done. Good team. It feels weird to put the Pistons in third, but there’s a couple of problems: they’re actually going to have to play hard this year and, because they have no bench, their starters will get worn down and hurt. Two things about the Bucks: 1) They’re a year away — they need to develop some chemistry and 2) They’re only going as far as Mo Williams can take them. So I guess what I’m saying is they’ll get to the second round next year. How the mighty Pacers have fallen. They have two worthwhile pieces right now: Jermaine O’Neal and Danny Granger. That’s it.

Southeast
Heat
Wizards
Magic
Hawks
Bobcats

The Heat: Wade rules; other than that, they’re old. Isn’t this Wizards team the same as last year when I compared them to the Nets? It’s still pretty true: the Nets have Vince in a contract year and the Wizards have Arenas with a chip on his shoulder. The Magic are making the playoffs. I called this on August 21st. For the record, Dwight Howard dropped 27 and 13 on the Ben Wallace and the Bulls the other night. Scary. It’s hard not to see the lowly Hawks as improved, but are you really giving the car keys to Speedy Claxton? The Bobcats would be a good team, except the frontcourt won’t stay healthy (Brezec is already worn down, Okafor will hurt his knee/ankle/back and Sean May is too fat). Now that I think about it, Brevin Knight and Gerald Wallace will get hurt too.

Playoff teams: Nets, Cavs, Bulls, Pistons, Bucks, Heat, Wizards, Magic

Northwest
Jazz
Nuggets
Timberwolves
Sonics
Blazers

I just realized that Jazz and Nuggets are almost the same team — great frontcourt with injury issues, good point guard, no one to play shooting guard. So why the Jazz first? Well, Deron Williams is making the leap this year. Jerry Sloan, the Jazz coach, said that he hadn’t seen a player improve so much in the offseason after his rookie year since Karl Malone. Also, the Nuggets have major chemistry issues, even if K-Mart and George Karl claim to have buried that hatchet. Ok let’s finish up the rest of the division quickly — T-Wolves: Does KG need a new team or what? Does Kevin McHale need to be fired or what? Sonics: I was excited for the Robert Swift era, now it’s just another year of Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen fighting for shots. Blazers: Let’s focus on the positive: Jarrett Jack, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster and LaMarcus Aldridge.

Pacific
Clippers
Suns
Lakers
Kings
Warriors

I’d like to point out right now that I’ve been on the Clippers bandwagon since 03-04 when I had Brand and Maggette on my fantasy team. They have so much talent, the only wild card is their coach, who was totally overmatched last year. Here’s the thing about the Suns: last year, they knew they didn’t have Amare so they just went out and played basketball. This year, Amare’s ups and downs are going to be a huge distraction. I suddenly find myself liking this Lakers team, despite having two of the most unlikeable players in the NBA: Kobe and Odom. Also, can we start calling Kobe “Kobes”? Anyway, I know I’m supposed to hate the Lakers — maybe it’s their new underdog status. I know that the Kings are like the Atlanta Braves of the NBa at this point, but now they have Artest. In case you forgot, he’s crazy. And in Golden State, Don Nelson’s Mike Dunleavy Experiment is crashing and burning after three games. At least, they have Baron Davis.

Southwest
Mavs
Spurs
Rockets
Hornets
Grizzlies

This is probably the best division in basketball. The Grizzlies are in trouble because Gasol got hurt and they lost Battier, but everyone else got better. The Mavs upgraded their bench, the Spurs have a rested and healthy Tim Duncan, the Rockets got a healthy McGrady, Battier and mystery man Steve Novak (notice how I didn’t mention Bonzi Wells), the Hornets got Peja and Tyson Chandler. However, each team also has a key player worn out from international competition this summer: Dirk, Parker and Ginobili, Yao (foot problems also), Chris Paul and Pau Gasol, if he wasn’t injured. Remember I told you this when June rolls around.

Playoff teams: Jazz, Clippers, Suns, Lakers, Mavs, Spurs, Rockets, Hornets