aaron c beals

Summing up my feelings almost exactly, this quote is from an email I got today from my former boss and noted Red Sox author, Vin Femia:

“Year in and year out, decade in and decade out, century in and century out, the Red Sox will always roll over and play dead for the Yankees in any series after August 15 that means anything, and no lead is ever big enough for these guys, whether it is 14 games in the standings or a 5 run lead in the 8th inning. The only exception was those 4 games in 2004, and even in that the Red Sox showed stupidity by bringing in Pedro in the 7th inning of game 7 when there was no reason to do that.

“It is uncanny how the Red Sox almost always do this. It happened in the days of Ruth and Foxx, Williams and Dimaggio, Yaz and Mantle, Fisk and Munson, Nomar and Jeter, and now Ortiz and A-Rod. The consistency is astounding. Even Death and Taxes must be jealous.”

By the way, if you happen to read his book (and I encourage you to), what’s amazing to me is Vin’s uncanny ability to remember things from the past, in all aspects of his life but especially in sports. He can pull stats, figures, and events from years past without looking them up online, and 99% of the time, he’s spot-on. It’s eerie.

i’m going to post my thoughts on the C’s recent trade for KG soon, but don’t have time to right now. in the meantime, this post on celticsblog.com does a pretty good job of capturing my level of excitement.

[Brant posted his predictions today, just before me. Read them!]

We’re a little late with the predictions this year, and as a result, they have been influenced slightly by the outcomes of the first week of games. Luckily, Brant and I have benefited from the same amount of information, so we should be on par. Except for the fact that my predictions are going to be right.

THE EAST
Atlantic Division
1. New Jersey
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Philadelphia
5. New York

I hate the Nets (though I’m open to changing my mind when they move to Brooklyn). But they’re going to do well this season. Yes, Vince Carter is in a contract year, but that’s not the whole reason they’re going to be #1. They are going to be aided by the crappiest division in the League. And Nenad Krstchkrskckstsk. Toronto is young and hungry, and (I can’t believe I’m about to write this) would have been a contender for top of the Atlantic if they hadn’t given away Charlie V. Bargnani? Softer than a day-old cannoli. I’m feeling a comeback year from T.J., though — and Bosh is going to realize he needs to start taking over games. Then there’s the Celtics. In the interest of full disclosure, I had them at #2 here until I sat there in the Garden for opening night. What a disgrace and a failure to win it for Red. I finally agree with Bill Simmons: Doc has got to go. There’s just too much talent there to have it mismanaged. I’ll write more about the C’s in a separate column, touching on Rondo, Bassy, and the rest of the kids. Philly’s season is going to fall apart with Chris Webber’s knees, but the shot in the heart will come later in the season as AI trade rumors start to heat back up. I have to say that I officially feel bad for the inhabitants of Philly at this point. But not as bad as I feel for Knicks fans. Words cannot do that train wreck justice. [THEY GAVE JARED JEFFRIES MONEY! REAL, ACTUAL MONEY!!]

Central Division
1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Milwaukee
4. Indiana
5. Chicago

Wow, what a stacked division, especially for the East, which has been the overall weaker Conference for a while now (despite the Miami win last season). Don’t be surprised if all 5 teams make the playoffs this season. Given all the power here, it’s actually tough to figure out how they’re going to land. I’m giving Cleveland the nod, not because of the components (Eric Snow and Drew Gooden do not a contender make) but because I believe LeBron has the capability to make them impossibly better, just like Kobe was able to do in L.A. Detroit will come in at #2, but that’s only because they’ve burned me in the past. They have to taper off at some point here. They just have to. But not this year. They’re going to quietly win 30 games before making another late-season surge and ending up with 45 or so. I wish I didn’t have to do that, because I’d much rather pick Milwaukee as the #2 here. They’ve got undeniable offensive weapons (Redd, Simmons), an underrated stopper (Villanueva), and a legit big man (Bogut). Their only weakness is their bench. Lose two starters to injury, and they’re toast. Indiana is going to start strong, self destruct (partially due to the amazing Stephen Jackson, partially due to a painful back injury for O’Neal), and end up slipping to 4th in the Central. That said, they’re still better than most of the rest of the East. And finally, poor Chicago. Everyone (I’m including myself here) wanted to pick them higher before the season started. They have the young talent, possibly the best in the league other than Boston. They managed to take last year’s solid D and make it even more robust with the addition of Ben Wallace. However, for a D-heavy team to succeed in the NBA today, they need to be built a lot like Detroit. And frankly, the Bulls aren’t that. They may be able to hold teams to the lowest scoring in the league, but they’ll need to do some consistent scoring themselves to win games.

Southeast Division
1. Miami
2. Washington
3. Orlando
4. Atlanta
5. Charlotte

Miami is worse than last season, will not compete for the NBA title this year, will squander a year of Dwyane Wade’s phenomenal career by keeping him surrounded by aging ex-stars… and will win the Southeast because the rest of the teams are sub-par. We hold these two truths to be self-evident: Washington is going to score more points than any other team in the league, and Washington is going to allow more points than any other team in the league. Oh, and I guess there’s a third: Gil Arenas will regularly go off for over 40 points. Orlando, improbably starting the Bat Man (Tony Battie), will ride Grant Hill’s swan song just enough to grab third place, but will miss the playoffs. The good news is that JJ Redick will step up and get ready to take Hill’s spot. Atlanta could have been better with the weapons they should have drafted/traded for, but they’re not too shabby with the guys they have. Too bad the Atlanta front office will find a way to screw things up. Speedy Claxton, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, the new Big Z (Zaza)… wow, on paper, I really like this team. Unfortunately, in Atlanta, I don’t. Charlotte ends up in last place here, and probably last place in the whole Conference, for one last year before they click as a team and as an organization. Hire a top-5 coach and these guys could do a lot in 2 years.

Playoff-Bound: Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Indiana, Miami, New Jersey, Washington, Chicago

THE WEST

Northwest Division
1. Utah
2. Denver
3. Minnesota
4. Seattle
5. Portland

Utah’s another team benefiting from sitting atop a crappy division. This isn’t a knock on Denver — I think Carmelo’s good enough to overcome the ticking time bomb that is KMart + Karl. Minnesota? Welcome to the 2004 Boston Celtics, KG! Seriously, they’re starting Mike James, Ricky D, and Mark Blount. MARK BLOUNT! I should give them last place just for that decision alone. Seattle has two solid players in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but have surrounded them with junk. Nice work, and another slap in the face of a great city that’s going to be losing their stories franchise to Oklahoma City in 2 years. Portland is Portland until further notice.

Pacific Division
1. L.A. Lakers
2. L.A. Clippers
3. Phoenix
4. Sacramento
5. Golden State

I really hate putting Phoenix so low here, but their season really hinges on Amare’s health, and there hasn’t been anyone in the NBA that’s come back from microfracture surgery 100%… or even close to it. L.A. seems to be the dominant city in this division, and as much as I also hate this: the Lakers are better than the Clippers this season. No more legal distractions for Kobe, which allows him to focus on playing out of his mind and making his teammates better. Sacramento got a huge shot in the arm from Artest, but really needs a team overhaul to be a contender again. Golden State is riding the Baron’s bad back and the 32-1-1 stat lines of J-Rich, not to mention the vastly overpaid Dunleavy. Good times in the Bay Area.

Southwest Division
1. San Antonio
2. Dallas
3. Houston
4. New Orleans/OK City
5. Memphis

San Antonio’s only potential weak spot is at center, where they have an unproven foreign player (Fabricio Oberto). And we all know that unproven foreign players never work out well for the Spu… oh, wait. I think they’re all set — their strategy seems to be surrounding TD with the Argentinian National Team. Dallas has all the pieces from last year’s team, but they won’t win their division during the regular season, because they’re saving the big push for the playoffs. Also, look for Mark Cuban to distract the team with his continued antics. Houston made a big defensive upgrade by adding Battier at SF — smart move — and could go far if TMac, Yao, and Bonzi can share the ball on offense. Interesting note: on the depth chart, they’re FIVE deep at shooting guard. Yes, TMac’s position. Weird. New Orleans picked up Peja and Tyson Chandler in the offseason, both good moves in my opinion. Look for them to do better than expected, but struggle against teams running the fast break well. And last (and certainly least), Memphis. Until Pau comes back (estimated: Jan or Feb), they’re riding Eddie Jones, Mike Miller, and Stro Swift. Bummer in the River City.

Playoff-Bound: San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, L.A. Lakers, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix, Utah, Denver

Okay…an intro…it’s hard to write an intro when someone is tuning a harp in the background. Let me just say that I am, as usual, stoked for this NBA this year. I probably shouldn’t say this, but I dreamt about my fantasy team the other night. In other words, I’m ready for ski season to start. Enough rambling, here’s the predictions with commentary in paragraph form:

East
Atlantic
Nets
Celtics
Sixers
Raptors
Knicks

As always, we’ll kick it off with the worst division in basketball — for the Atlantic, I did my rankings from the bottom up. At this point, there’s nothing left to say about the Knicks. The Raptors, in essence, switched Mike James and Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford and Andres Barganini. In other words, the Colangelo Era is getting off to a rocky start. You know what though? One of the Sports Illustrated writers picked the Raptors to make the playoffs. I’ve been searcing for an angle on the Sixers for a while, here’s the best I’ve got: How does a team with two Hall of Famers not make the playoffs? Just watch the Sixers. Now, the C’s: listen, I like Rajon Rondo, too, but let’s all just take a deep breath. Is he going to be good? Sure. Is he the second coming of Chris Paul? Not likely. And the Nets get the division by default. Again. Sigh.

Central
Cavs
Bulls
Pistons
Bucks
Pacers

This is a strong division and I’m giving it to the Cavs. My reasoning is 75% LeBron, 23% Larry Hughes and 2% Anderson Varejao. The Bulls are good defensive team with a defensive-minded coach that just added the best off-the-ball defender in the league, and even though Big Ben doesn’t score, pretty much everyone else can get the job done. Good team. It feels weird to put the Pistons in third, but there’s a couple of problems: they’re actually going to have to play hard this year and, because they have no bench, their starters will get worn down and hurt. Two things about the Bucks: 1) They’re a year away — they need to develop some chemistry and 2) They’re only going as far as Mo Williams can take them. So I guess what I’m saying is they’ll get to the second round next year. How the mighty Pacers have fallen. They have two worthwhile pieces right now: Jermaine O’Neal and Danny Granger. That’s it.

Southeast
Heat
Wizards
Magic
Hawks
Bobcats

The Heat: Wade rules; other than that, they’re old. Isn’t this Wizards team the same as last year when I compared them to the Nets? It’s still pretty true: the Nets have Vince in a contract year and the Wizards have Arenas with a chip on his shoulder. The Magic are making the playoffs. I called this on August 21st. For the record, Dwight Howard dropped 27 and 13 on the Ben Wallace and the Bulls the other night. Scary. It’s hard not to see the lowly Hawks as improved, but are you really giving the car keys to Speedy Claxton? The Bobcats would be a good team, except the frontcourt won’t stay healthy (Brezec is already worn down, Okafor will hurt his knee/ankle/back and Sean May is too fat). Now that I think about it, Brevin Knight and Gerald Wallace will get hurt too.

Playoff teams: Nets, Cavs, Bulls, Pistons, Bucks, Heat, Wizards, Magic

Northwest
Jazz
Nuggets
Timberwolves
Sonics
Blazers

I just realized that Jazz and Nuggets are almost the same team — great frontcourt with injury issues, good point guard, no one to play shooting guard. So why the Jazz first? Well, Deron Williams is making the leap this year. Jerry Sloan, the Jazz coach, said that he hadn’t seen a player improve so much in the offseason after his rookie year since Karl Malone. Also, the Nuggets have major chemistry issues, even if K-Mart and George Karl claim to have buried that hatchet. Ok let’s finish up the rest of the division quickly — T-Wolves: Does KG need a new team or what? Does Kevin McHale need to be fired or what? Sonics: I was excited for the Robert Swift era, now it’s just another year of Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen fighting for shots. Blazers: Let’s focus on the positive: Jarrett Jack, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster and LaMarcus Aldridge.

Pacific
Clippers
Suns
Lakers
Kings
Warriors

I’d like to point out right now that I’ve been on the Clippers bandwagon since 03-04 when I had Brand and Maggette on my fantasy team. They have so much talent, the only wild card is their coach, who was totally overmatched last year. Here’s the thing about the Suns: last year, they knew they didn’t have Amare so they just went out and played basketball. This year, Amare’s ups and downs are going to be a huge distraction. I suddenly find myself liking this Lakers team, despite having two of the most unlikeable players in the NBA: Kobe and Odom. Also, can we start calling Kobe “Kobes”? Anyway, I know I’m supposed to hate the Lakers — maybe it’s their new underdog status. I know that the Kings are like the Atlanta Braves of the NBa at this point, but now they have Artest. In case you forgot, he’s crazy. And in Golden State, Don Nelson’s Mike Dunleavy Experiment is crashing and burning after three games. At least, they have Baron Davis.

Southwest
Mavs
Spurs
Rockets
Hornets
Grizzlies

This is probably the best division in basketball. The Grizzlies are in trouble because Gasol got hurt and they lost Battier, but everyone else got better. The Mavs upgraded their bench, the Spurs have a rested and healthy Tim Duncan, the Rockets got a healthy McGrady, Battier and mystery man Steve Novak (notice how I didn’t mention Bonzi Wells), the Hornets got Peja and Tyson Chandler. However, each team also has a key player worn out from international competition this summer: Dirk, Parker and Ginobili, Yao (foot problems also), Chris Paul and Pau Gasol, if he wasn’t injured. Remember I told you this when June rolls around.

Playoff teams: Jazz, Clippers, Suns, Lakers, Mavs, Spurs, Rockets, Hornets

So I got the new site up with the main intention of starting to post more, but clearly that well-laid plan failed. Ah, well, there’s always tomorrow.

The good news is that I turned on registration, so if you’ve been itching to comment on posts (the old ones are coming, I promise) you can go ahead and do so. Just click on the “Comments” link below, try to log in, and click “Register” on the login page. You’ll need a valid email, but fear not — I won’t spam you.

Because my night-owl ways have returned for the week, here are some thoughts and links:

• My buddy John introduced me to a new web comic recently — and of course I had to go back and read every strip in the archive. This is by no means the first incident. Ctrl-Alt-Del is similar to Penny Arcade in premise and focus (video-game-centric) but the method of delivery is different (plot vs loose association).
• The Celtics 2006-07 schedule just got released today, and the home opener is against … the Hornets?!? What kind of old-school rivalry is that? The last two years they’ve kicked off the season against the Knicks and Sixers. And before that, it was the Heat, Bulls, Cavs, and Raptors — at least they were in the same Conference. It still frustrates me that teams play divisional rivals (against whom they’re vying for divisional titles and playoff spots) no more often than most other teams in the league. It’s all about marketing to the NBA; gotta make sure the big names hit all the cities to get those butts in the seats, as opposed to, say … playing engaging basketball and building rivalries?
• I have restrained myself thus far and have only made two purchases off of Woot, both of which are getting steady use around here.
• Some day, I’ll have one of these… but until then, I’m going to have to keep using these lesser devices. At least I’ll soon be making one upgrade.

More to come…